October 15, 2020
What do we know about the history of pandemics and how they change the world?
1. They do not last for months or a year. They simply don’t go away. They last for years and years and keep coming back.
The black plague of the 14th century began in 1347 and lasted for five years and killed one out of three people in Europe. But it came back five more times before the end of the century to ultimately kill ½ of the population.
The influenza pandemic which was inappropriately called the “Spanish Flu,” began in 1918. The deaths that year were horrible and caused a panic. Most people thought it was over. However, it came back with a vengeance in 1919 and did not end until 1920. It only ended when the virus mutated. That pandemic killed almost 800,000 Americans.
2. Pandemics profoundly changed the world as we humans know and live in it.
The black plague destroyed the centuries-old feudal system. As the plague spread, peasants abandoned the countryside and moved to cities. Many moved into the unoccupied houses of the rich and upper class. They used their silverware, took their livestock and possessions. Pandemics don’t see social class, but they usually disrupt it.
What happened after the plague was an increase in the social standing and the standard of living for people who were unrecognized and undervalued. After the plague, the wages of textile workers, craftsmen and artisans doubled or tripled. Cities grew and the industrial revolution followed.
The attitude toward and faith in the powerful church and religious system also changed. The Papal business and authority were undermined and resulted in the religious reformation movement.
Some historians have called the black death the unrecognized beginning of modern man.
The influenza pandemic, which began in 1918, also markedly change the world. As some cities practiced social distancing and isolation, others did not.
The differences in the death rate were dramatic and gave credence to the concepts of public health and epidemiology.
In America and the rest of the world, movements toward socialism grew in an attempt to address health and social inequality.
As people grew tired of the harshness of the first world war and the pandemic, they wanted to go back to their past life. In 1920 the Presidential candidate Warren Harding saw his opportunity. His campaign slogan was “Return to Normalcy.” It worked; he won by the most lopsided margin since the beginning of the two-party system.
Today, everybody is talking about returning to the” New Normal.” I believe the “New Normal” is an inappropriate and unhelpful term. While our future coexistence with COVID-19 will certainly be new, there is very little about it that will be normal.
A more appropriate perspective and term for the future would be “The Great Adaptation.” That’s what we’re gonna have to do. We’re going to have to adapt and adjust to living in the world with COVID-19.
What we are experiencing today: the preventive measures, social distancing, unemployment and business disruption are going to last for two and perhaps three years.